Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Populism in American Politics: Why the Next President Needs to be an Elitist

Amid the ruckus of 3AM calls, superdelegates, and allegations of racism, one curious factor has been lost in this presidential race: the increasingly important role of populism in American politics, especially during election year.

All three candidates in the fray are singing a distinctively populist tune. Barack Obama (Anti-NAFTA), Hillary Clinton (Job-protectionism) and John McCain (National Security) have significantly racheted up their appeals to the working-class. One cannot really blame them for adopting this strategy. By and large, this section of Americans voters is increasingly wary of free trade causing jobs to be shipped overseas, as well as being fed up with the confused approach to national security of the current administration.

The results have shown that this particular strategy is paying handsome dividends. On the Republican side, McCain has sewn up the party's nomination despite being viewed with suspicion by the party's more conservative section. Even his detractors admit that McCain is someone who has the right background and qualifications to right America's national security policy. On the Democratic side, Clinton has always appealed to the White, working-class populace and to her credit, she has maintained her support base, as evidenced by her victory in Ohio and her positive poll numbers in Pennsylvania.

Obama's case is a bit more complicated. He started off weak, but made rapid ground in the race, largely due to his appeal to educated, urban males and Blacks. However, he has recently changed tack and his campaign rhetoric has taken a more populist approach. His calls for "change", heady slogans such as "the urgency of now" (whatever that means) and his staunch anti-NAFTA stance are viewed as his attempts to maintain support amongst swing voters.

In a recent article in the Financial Times, Alan Greenspan has argued that a free-market, tarriff-free approach should continue to be the cornerstone of American economic policy, the one success of the current administration. The venerable banker has history on his side. A protectionist economic approach has always tended to pay dividends in the short-term, but has typically backfired over the course of multiple business cycles.

Take the current credit crisis. Amid the carnage on Wall Street, one silver lining for the top investment banks has been what are known as Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), assets held by governments in another country's currency. These comprise of financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds and derivatives. It is hard to believe, but had it not been for SWFs, behemoths like Citi and Merrill Lynch would have been in an even worse situation than they currently are.

Thus far, most Western economies, including the U.S', have maintained regulations that have allowed freer capital and labor flows. Given that US economic policy still sets the tone for the Europeans, the current rhetoric in the American electoral landscape could set a dangerous precedent in the years to come.

Alexander Hamilton, America's first treasury secretary, and a staunch Federalist, believed that the well-educated elite should set the nation's economic agenda. All three presidential candidates in the 2008 race would do well to follow his sage advice.

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5 Comments:

At March 18, 2008 at 10:56 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

never thought you would be the one to go against populism, Prasant. Thought you were ultra-liberal, 120% left-wing and even in bed with labor unions. Glad that we agree on this one, to say the least. Keep up the good work.

Your totally capitalist friend EZ

 
At March 18, 2008 at 11:00 AM , Blogger Prasant said...

Desperate times call for desperate measures, EZ. Labor's time will come.

- p*

 
At March 18, 2008 at 12:14 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

The pace of policy change is much slower, given the checks and balances in the system. The reaction of what gets initiated in one term is often seen in another term ( with a different president too?).

I would rather have a fiscally responsible president. But politics needs populism. We know that inflation, joblessness and recession are realties ( even necessary evils?) of modern capitalist societies. Still every politician tries to win popular vote by spouting some populist rhetoric that says will fix one or more problems while even they know they can't.

 
At March 18, 2008 at 1:13 PM , Blogger Prasant said...

Agree with your core point about the need for political rhetoric, anonymous. But I disagree as far as recessions, etc. being necessary evils.

Generally, people (and economists) are in love with the so-called 'Goldilocks zone' of the economy - not too hot, not too cold. Extremes (inflation and recession) are generally viewed with suspicion. A gradually growing is ideal.

 
At March 20, 2008 at 7:07 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Elitist Vs. Populist

The underlying assumption is populace will not understand the choices Elites are making for them. Also, the assumption is that populace cannot think in long term.

Now, long term thinking is always a difficult selling job. But, it has been done before.

In America, you have better educated citizens and institutions than anywhere else in the world.

I do not trust elites to work in my interest. If they can sell their concepts and ideas to more than a majority, then I will assume that they have good idea. That idea will be elitist as well as populist.

 

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